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Industry Forecasts

A Note about Forecasts:
Take forecasts with a grain of salt. By definition, a forecast is a prediction, a foretelling, a best guess. Use forecasts with care!

Reference Sources:

• Standard & Poor's Industry Surveys (Raynor REF HC 106.6 .S74).
  In addition to the 'forward-looking statements' included in the analysis of each industry covered by S&P, there is also the Monthly Investment Review included at the beginning of each volume. The short industry profiles in the Monthly Investment Review are forecasts for the various subsectors.
• Value Line Investment Survey (Raynor Information Desk HG 4501 .V26).
  Value Line includes a one-page industry profile and near-term forecast for each of the 90+ industries it covers. Be sure to use the Index issue to find your industry.

Magazine and Newspaper Articles:

These are a prime source for industry information overall, including forecasts. However, they are not a guaranteed source, only a likely source. 
Click here for a list of article databases.

Other Databases:
Below are several databases where you can find industry forecast information.

• Investext (part of Business & Company Resource Center): this is a database of financial analyst reports (e.g. Morgan Stanley, Dean Witter, etc.) Though the majority are on individual companies, there are some that have a broader scope.
  Search Tips: Use the 'Advanced Search'.
  1. For 'Content Area', specify "Investment Reports".
  2. For 'Report Type', type in "ir" (this stands for 'investment report').
  3. For your industry, there are two possibilities: a) use either an SIC or NAICS code; b) type in a keyword, and choose either 'keyword' or 'industry description' from the drop-down menu. You may need to try all of these methods.
• Global Market Information Database : This is an international market research database with a heavy emphasis on consumer products.
  Search Tips: There are two sections of the database with forecast information on consumer products in ~50 countries (the more developed ones).
  1. Statistics: There are time series data on sales value and volume for various consumer products. The time series generally go back to 1997, and project forward five years from the present. Use the 'Time Series' drop-down menu to select the time period.
  2. Consumer Lifestyles: These are narrative market research profiles. They include forward-looking statements and statistics, though these are often NOT identified explicitly as forecasts. Try a keyword search such as "spain and consumer lifestyles"; then skim the entire report.
• TableBase: This small but wonderful database indexes tabular data in a variety of sources including ~3,000 journals. One of the "Concept Terms" available is 'industry forecasts'.

Resources:  Reference | Statistics | News Articles | Forecasts | Ratios