Haley continues to hold large lead over Biden in hypothetical matchup but wins just 22% in Republican primary polling

Feb. 7, 2024

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Please note: Complete Poll results, precise questions, and methodology information can be found online at law.marquette.edu/poll

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds the presumptive presidential race tied, with President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump each supported by 49% of registered voters. Among the somewhat smaller group who are considered likely voters, Trump is at 50% and Biden at 49%.

In November, Biden received 50% and Trump 48% among both registered and likely voters.

These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked to choose one of the candidates. Among registered voters, 12% were initially undecided, as were 10% among likely voters.

When third-party candidates are included, Trump receives 40% and Biden 37% among registered voters. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives 16%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein is the choice of 4%, and independent candidate Cornel West receives 2%.

Among likely voters in the five-way race, Trump is the choice of 41%, Biden 39%, Kennedy 13%, Stein 4%, and West 2%.

The survey was conducted Jan. 24-31, 2024, interviewing 930 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.2 percentage points. The sample includes 408 Republicans and independents who lean Republican, who were asked about their preferences in the Republican presidential primary, with a margin of error of +/-6.4 percentage points.

In a head-to-head match between Biden and Republican candidate Nikki Haley, Haley continues to hold sizable advantage as the choice of 57% registered voters, compared to 41% who chose Biden. Among likely voters, Haley receives 57% and Biden 42%. In November, 53% of registered voters favored Haley compared to 44% who chose Biden.

Table 1 shows the Biden vs. Trump results by party identification. Biden and Trump receive nearly equal support from their respective parties, while independents lean to Biden. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages.)

Table 1: Vote for Biden or Trump

Among registered voters

Party ID	Vote choice
	Donald Trump	Joe Biden	Haven't decided
Total	49	49	2
Republican	90	10	0
Independent	42	49	8
Democrat	9	91	0
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?

Haley runs especially well against Biden, as shown in Table 2, winning a larger share of Republicans than Trump and taking a majority of the vote from independents. She also wins 15% from Democratic voters, larger than does Trump.

Table 2: Vote for Biden or Haley

Among registered voters

Party ID	Vote choice
	Nikki Haley	Joe Biden	Haven't decided
Total	57	41	1
Republican	96	3	1
Independent	58	36	3
Democrat	15	85	0
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Nikki Haley or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Haley?

In the five-way ballot test, Kennedy takes more votes from Republicans, 16%, than from Democrats, 12%, and an especially large share from independents, 28%. Stein takes 8% of the vote from Democrats but only 1% from Republicans, while West does better among independents than among partisans. These results are shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Five-way ballot, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Vote choice
	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	West	Stein	Don't know
Total	37	40	16	2	4	1
Republican	5	76	16	1	1	0
Independent	33	27	28	4	3	2
Democrat	73	5	12	2	8	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Joe Biden, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, independent Cornel West, or Green Party’s Jill Stein?

As the primaries have begun, most respondents expect Trump and Biden to be the nominees of their respective parties, but some don’t think so, especially those of the opposite party. Table 4 shows expectation that Biden will be the Democratic nominee. Among all respondents, 40% say Biden will definitely be the nominee and 40% say he probably will be. However, 9% say he probably won’t be and 5% say he definitely won’t be the Democratic nominee. Republicans are especially doubtful, with more than 1 in 5 saying he probably or definitely won’t be the nominee and another 9% saying they don’t know.

Table 4: Will Biden be the nominee, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Biden the nominee
	Definitely will be the nominee	Probably will be the nominee	Probably will not be the nominee	Definitely will not be the nominee	Don't know
Total	40	40	9	5	6
Republican	25	45	11	10	9
Independent	37	42	6	7	7
Democrat	58	34	7	0	2
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: How likely is it that Joe Biden will be the presidential nominee of the Democratic Party in the November election?

Trump is seen as definitely the Republican nominee by 34% and probably the nominee by 51%, while 6% say he probably won’t be and 2% think he definitely won’t be the nominee. Democrats are more skeptical Trump will win the nomination and Republicans less doubtful, as shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Will Trump be the nominee, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Trump the nominee
	Definitely will be the nominee	Probably will be the nominee	Probably will not be the nominee	Definitely will not be the nominee	Don't know
Total	34	51	6	2	5
Republican	50	44	2	1	4
Independent	29	57	4	2	7
Democrat	20	58	12	4	6
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: How likely is it that Donald Trump will be the presidential nominee of the Republican Party in the November election?

Respondents were also asked, regardless of whom they plan to support, who they think would win in the presidential election in November in a hypothetical Biden-Trump rematch from 2020. Trump is seen as more likely to win, with 23% saying he would definitely win and 25% saying he probably would win. Biden is seen as definitely winning by 14% and probably winning by 27%, while 12% say they don’t know who will win.

Majorities of each party think their party’s candidate is likely to win. Independents slightly lean to think of Trump winning, although over a quarter say they don’t know, as shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Who is likely to win, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Who is likely to win
	Definitely Biden	Probably Biden	Probably Trump	Definitely Trump	Don't know
Total	14	27	25	23	12
Republican	2	16	30	45	7
Independent	17	18	23	16	26
Democrat	26	41	20	2	12
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Regardless of how you plan to vote, who do you think will win the presidential election if Joe Biden is the Democratic candidate and Donald Trump is the Republican candidate?

GOP primary

In the Republican primary, Trump is supported by 64% and Haley is the choice of 22%, with 14% saying they are undecided. In the Marquette Law School Poll in November, Trump was the choice of 38% and Haley the choice of 11%, with 24% undecided and other candidates taking the remainder.

The favorability ratings for Trump, Haley, and Florida Gov, Ron DeSantis, who dropped out +of the race very shortly before the survey began, are shown in Table 7, among Republican registered voters. Trump’s net favorable rating has increased, while Haley’s has decreased since November. DeSantis’ net favorable rating also went down from the fall. Trump is now seen favorably by 77% of Republicans, up from 69% in November. Haley’s favorable rating has not changed much, but her unfavorable rating rose to 31%, up from 18%, while those saying they haven’t heard enough about her declined to 17% from 27% in November.

Table 7: Favorability to Trump, Haley and DeSantis

Among Republican registered voters

Candidate	Favorability
	Poll dates	Net favorable	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven't heard enough	Don't know
Donald Trump	1/24-31/24	56	77	21	2	0
Donald Trump	10/26-11/2/23	41	69	28	3	0
Nikki Haley	1/24-31/24	21	52	31	17	0
Nikki Haley	10/26-11/2/23	36	54	18	27	2
Ron DeSantis	1/24-31/24	47	67	20	13	0
Ron DeSantis	10/26-11/2/23	58	73	15	11	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven't you heard enough about them yet?

Haley’s support in the primary largely comes from the 21% of Republicans with an unfavorable view of Trump, as shown in Table 8. Haley does nearly as well with those unfavorable to Trump as Trump does among those favorable to him. However, there are too few Republicans unfavorable to Trump to provide a large enough GOP base for Haley to match Trump in the primary polling.

Table 8: Primary vote, by favorability to Trump

Among Republican registered voters

Trump favorability	Primary choice 2024
	Nikki Haley	Donald Trump	Haven't decided
Favorable	7	80	13
Unfavorable	77	5	18
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: If the Republican primary were today, whom would you vote for or haven’t you decided?
Question: Next, we’d like to get your opinion of some people you may or may not be familiar with. For each name, please indicate if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them or if you haven’t heard enough about them yet to have an opinion. Donald Trump

Enthusiasm and likelihood of voting

Registered voters are less enthusiastic about voting than they were in January 2020, as shown in Table 9. In the current survey, 49% say they are very enthusiastic about voting in November, compared to 70% at the comparable time four years ago.

Table 9: Enthusiasm to vote in November election

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Enthusiasm
	Very	Somewhat	Not too	Not at all	Don't know
1/24-31/24	49	25	17	9	0
10/26-11/2/23	46	28	19	6	1
1/8-12/20	70	22	5	3	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: (2024) How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?
Question: (2020) How enthusiastic are you about voting in this November’s elections? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

Those who are most enthusiastic substantially prefer Trump to Biden, while those less enthusiastic prefer Biden to Trump, as shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Vote for Biden or Trump, by enthusiasm

Among registered voters

Enthusiasm	Vote choice 2024
	Donald Trump	Joe Biden	Haven't decided
Very enthusiastic	59	40	1
Somewhat enthusiastic	41	57	3
Not too enthusiastic	37	60	3
Not at all enthusiastic	42	57	0
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

Enthusiasm is related to likelihood of voting, but these are measured separately. Those who are classified as likely voters slightly prefer Trump, while those who are less likely to vote prefer Biden, as shown in Table 11. How, or if, enthusiasm and likelihood of voting (the latter ultimately becoming turnout) change over the campaign may shift the candidates’ advantages.

Table 11: Vote for Biden or Trump, by likelihood of voting

Among registered voters

Likelihood of voting	Vote choice 2024
	Donald Trump	Joe Biden	Haven't decided
Likely voter	50	49	1
Less likely to vote	46	51	3
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?

Favorability among all registered voters

Table 12 shows the trend in favorability to presidential candidates among all registered voters. All the candidates are viewed more unfavorably than favorably with the exception of Kennedy, who has a net favorability of +2 percentage points. Haley and the independent or third-party candidates are much less well known than Biden or Trump.

Table 12: Favorability to presidential candidates

Among registered voters

Candidate	Favorability
	Poll dates	Net favorable	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven't heard enough
Joe Biden	1/24-31/24	-17	41	58	1
Joe Biden	10/26-11/2/23	-14	42	56	2
Donald Trump	1/24-31/24	-18	40	58	1
Donald Trump	10/26-11/2/23	-24	37	61	2
Nikki Haley	1/24-31/24	-6	36	42	22
Nikki Haley	10/26-11/2/23	-3	31	34	33
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	1/24-31/24	2	35	33	32
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	10/26-11/2/23	-8	31	39	30
Cornel West	1/24-31/24	-12	7	19	73
Cornel West	10/26-11/2/23	-14	6	20	69
Jill Stein	1/24-31/24	-14	10	24	66
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven't you heard enough about them yet?

Both Biden and Trump are seen more unfavorably than favorably. A significant share of voters, 18%, see both of them unfavorably. Their combined favorability trend is shown in Table 13.

Table 13: Combined favorability to Biden and Trump

Among registered voters

Wave	Combined Favorability
	Biden fav, Trump fav	Biden fav, Trump unfav	Biden unfav, Trump fav	Biden unfav, Trump unfav	DK Biden or Trump
1/24-31/24	2	40	38	18	2
10/26-11/2/23	1	41	36	18	4
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven't you heard enough about them yet?

Biden job approval

Biden’s job approval in January stands at 41%, with disapproval at 58%, a one-point decline in approval since November. Table 14 shows the trend in job approval.

Table 14: Biden job approval

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Job approval
	Total approve	Total disapprove	Strongly approve	Somewhat approve	Somewhat disapprove	Strongly disapprove
1/24-31/24	41	58	18	23	10	48
10/26-11/2/23	42	57	17	25	12	44
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Vote choice generally is strongly related to approval. But Biden wins a majority of voters among those who somewhat disapprove of the job he is doing, as shown in Table 15.

Table 15: Biden vs. Trump, by Biden job approval

Among registered voters

Biden job approval	Vote choice
	Donald Trump	Joe Biden	Haven’t decided
Total	49	49	2
Strongly approve	5	94	1
Somewhat approve	5	95	0
Somewhat disapprove	44	50	6
Strongly disapprove	89	9	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Perceptions of Biden and Trump

Table 16 shows which candidate is thought to do a better job on seven issues. Trump is seen as better on immigration and border security, the economy, and, to a smaller degree, the Israel-Hamas war. The two are virtually tied on foreign relations. Biden is seen as slightly better on health care and on Medicare and Social Security, with a larger advantage on abortion policy.

On each different issue, a substantial percentage, 15%-24%, say both candidates would be about the same or that neither would be good. These voters could change their minds over the course of the campaign, providing an opportunity for the candidates.

Table 16: Which candidate would do a better job on issues

Among registered voters

Issue	Who better
	Biden	Trump	Both about the same	Neither good
Immigration and border security	28	54	6	11
The Economy	31	52	7	10
Israel-Hamas war	31	44	8	16
Foreign relations	42	43	5	10
Health care	40	36	12	12
Medicare and Social Security	42	37	11	10
Abortion policy	44	36	7	11
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Do you think Joe Biden or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues, they are both about the same or would neither be good on the issue?

Table 17 shows how well various phrases describe Biden and Trump. Biden is seen as too old to be president by 61%, compared to 29% who see Trump as too old.

On “shares your values,” slightly more say this describes Trump very well than say that of Biden, but more are emphatic that this does not describe Trump for them than say the same of Biden.

Corruption allegations have been leveled against both candidates. In this poll, 49% say “has behaved corruptly” describes Trump very well, with 30% saying this describes Biden very well.

On their records as president, Trump has an advantage, with 35% saying “strong record of accomplishments” describes him very well, while 19% say this describes Biden very well.

Table 17: How well does this phrase describe Biden or Trump

Among registered voters

Issue	How well phrase describes
	Very well	Somewhat well	Not too well	Not at all well
Is too old to be president
Biden	61	22	8	9
Trump	29	27	21	23
Shares your values
Biden	18	28	13	40
Trump	22	20	11	47
Has behaved corruptly
Biden	30	19	15	35
Trump	49	18	12	20
Strong record of accomplishments as president
Biden	19	24	19	37
Trump	35	17	18	30
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Joe Biden)(Donald Trump)?

With respect to Trump’s indictment for his actions following the 2020 election, 53% believe Trump did something illegal, 22% say he did something wrong but not illegal, 22% say he did nothing wrong, and 3% say they don’t know.

Asked if Joe Biden did something illegal related to his son’s business dealings, 42% believe he did something illegal, 17% say he did something wrong but not illegal, 29% say he did nothing wrong, and 13% say they don’t know.

Direction of the country, economic conditions, and personal financial situation

A majority (57%) of registered voters say that Wisconsin generally is on the wrong track, while 42% say it is headed in the right direction. In November, 62% said the state was on the wrong track and 36% said it was headed in the right direction. The trend for this opinion is shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Right direction or wrong track

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Direction of state
	Right direction	Wrong track	Don't know
1/24-31/24	42	57	0
10/26-11/2/23	36	62	2
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?

A majority of Democrats see the state headed in the right direction, while a majority of Republicans and independents say the state is on the wrong track, as shown in Table 19.

Table 19: Right direction or wrong track, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Direction of the state
	Right direction	Wrong track
Total	42	57
Republican	23	77
Independent	44	56
Democrat	62	36
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?

The national economy is seen as excellent by only 6%, as good by 32%, as not so good by 34%, and as poor by 28%. Views of the economy improved from November to January, as shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Views of the national economy

Among registered voters

Poll dates	National economy
	Excellent	Good	Not so good	Poor
1/24-31/24	6	32	34	28
10/26-11/2/23	3	24	36	37
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days?

These views of the economy differ sharply by party identification, as shown in Table 21, with Republicans quite negative and Democrats quite positive. Independents are more negative than positive, though less negative than Republicans.

Table 21: Views of the national economy, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Description of national economy
	Excellent	Good	Not so good	Poor
Total	6	32	34	28
Republican	2	14	40	44
Independent	7	31	37	25
Democrat	11	51	26	11
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days?

Respondents see the Wisconsin economy as better than the national economy. The comparison is shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Wisconsin economy vs. national economy

Among registered voters

State or national	View of economy
	Excellent	Good	Not so good	Poor
Wisconsin economy	6	42	38	14
National economy	6	32	34	28
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the Wisconsin economy these days?
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days?

Partisan differences are also strong in views of Wisconsin’s economy, although views of the state are more positive than for the nation across each partisan category, as shown in Table 23.

Table 23: Views of the Wisconsin economy, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Description of Wisconsin economy
	Excellent	Good	Not so good	Poor
Total	6	42	38	14
Republican	3	28	48	21
Independent	3	41	43	13
Democrat	9	58	26	7
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the Wisconsin economy these days?

Respondents’ family financial situation is little changed since November. Among registered voters, 49% say they are living comfortably, 38% say they are just getting by, and 13% say they are struggling. This trend is shown in Table 24.

Table 24: Family financial situation

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Financial situation
	Living comfortably	Just getting by	Struggling
1/24-31/24	49	38	13
10/26-11/2/23	48	36	15
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Thinking about your family's financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet?

Partisan differences in personal financial situation are shown in Table 25. Republicans are less likely to say they are living comfortably than either independents or Democrats.

Table 25: Family financial situation, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Family financial situation
	Living comfortably	Just getting by	Struggling
Total	49	38	13
Republican	42	42	17
Independent	49	38	13
Democrat	56	33	10
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Thinking about your family's financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet?

Approval of governor, legislature and state Supreme Court

Table 26 shows the job approval ratings for Gov. Tony Evers, the Wisconsin legislature, and the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Evers’ approval is 51% and disapproval is 44%. In November, Evers’ approval was 53% and disapproval was 46%.

Table 26: Approval of governor, the legislature, and state Supreme Court

Among registered voters

Approval of	Approval
	Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove	Don't know
Tony Evers	1/24-31/24	51	44	5
Tony Evers	10/26-11/2/23	53	46	2
The Wisconsin legislature	1/24-31/24	34	58	8
The Wisconsin legislature	10/26-11/2/23	40	57	3
The Wisconsin state Supreme Court	1/24-31/24	45	43	13
The Wisconsin state Supreme Court	10/26-11/2/23	51	43	5
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Wisconsin legislature is handling its job?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Wisconsin state Supreme Court is handling its job?

Favorability of state elected officials and potential U.S. Senate candidates

Favorability ratings of U.S. Sens. Tammy Baldwin and Ron Johnson, Evers, and Assembly Speaker Robin Vos are shown in Table 27. Vos is far less known statewide than are the others. Also included are three potential Republican candidates for U.S. Senate, though none had declared at the time of the survey. These potential candidates—Eric Hovde, Scott Mayer, and David Clarke—are little known at this point.

Table 27: Favorability of state political figures

Among registered voters

Favorability to	Favorability
	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven't heard enough	Don't know
Tammy Baldwin	42	45	13	0
Ron Johnson	38	52	9	0
Tony Evers	52	45	3	0
Robin Vos	17	39	43	0
Eric Hovde	7	9	82	2
Scott Mayer	4	7	88	1
David Clarke	18	17	65	0
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven't you heard enough about them yet?

State issues

In December the state Supreme Court ruled the existing legislative districts violated the state Constitution and required new maps to be drawn. This survey was conducted after new maps had been submitted, but before any ruling on which map will be adopted. The decision to draw new districts is favored by 42% of registered voters and opposed by 34%, while 23% say they don’t know.

Opinions of this decision are divided by party, as shown in Table 28. Yet a substantial portion of each party say they don’t have an opinion on this topic.

Table 28: Favor or oppose decision to redraw legislative districts

Among registered voters

Party ID	Favor or oppose decision
	Strongly favor	Somewhat favor	Somewhat oppose	Strongly oppose	Don’t know
Total	29	13	16	18	23
Republican	4	15	26	29	25
Independent	26	12	15	22	25
Democrat	57	11	7	4	20
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: In December the state Supreme Court ordered the redrawing of district maps for the state Assembly and Senate, replacing existing districts with new ones for the 2024 elections. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

In January, the legislature discussed legislation that would legalize the use of marijuana for medical purposes. Eighty-six percent say they support legalization for medical purposes, with 10% opposed and 4% saying they don’t know. When last asked about this in April 2019, 83% favored and 12% opposed legalizing medical marijuana.

A smaller majority, 63%, favor legalization of marijuana for any purpose, while 29% are opposed. This question was last asked in October 2022, with 64% in favor and 30% opposed.

Table 29 shows opinion of legalizing medical marijuana by party identification. Substantial majorities, including more than three-quarters of Republicans, favor legalization.

Table 29: Legalize medical marijuana, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Opinion
	Yes, legal	No, illegal
Total	86	10
Republican	78	17
Independent	84	11
Democrat	95	2
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Do you think the use of marijuana for medical purposes with a doctor’s prescription should be made legal, or not?

Opinion is somewhat more divided by party on legalization of marijuana beyond medicinal uses. Republicans are split evenly on this issue, with majorities of independents and Democrats in favor, as shown in Table 30.

Table 30: Legalize marijuana, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Opinion
	Yes, legal	No, illegal
Total	63	29
Republican	46	46
Independent	62	27
Democrat	83	11
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Do you think the use of marijuana should be made legal, or not?

The legislature is considering a measure that could place a referendum on the ballot that would ban abortion after 14 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions for the life and health of the mother and in cases of rape or incest. Opinion is closely divided on this issue, with 45% in favor, 48% opposed, and 8% saying they don’t know.

The partisan divide on this issue is shown in Table 31.

Table 31: Ban abortion after 14 weeks, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Preference
	Favor	Oppose	Don't know
Total	45	48	8
Republican	72	19	8
Independent	43	50	8
Democrat	15	77	7
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Would you favor or oppose a proposal to ban abortions in Wisconsin after 14 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions for the life and health of the mother and for cases of rape or incest?

Confidence in the accuracy of the 2020 presidential election (the casting and counting of votes) remains a sharp dividing line in Wisconsin. Overall, 66% are very or somewhat confident in the accuracy of the election in Wisconsin, with 31% not too or not at all confident. However, among Republicans, these percentages are almost reversed, with 40% very or somewhat confident and 59% not too or not at all confident.

These percentages have hardly changed since August 2021 when the question was first asked. At that time, 67% were very or somewhat confident and 31% not too or not at all confident.

Confidence in the 2020 election by party identification is shown in Table 32. While a majority of Republicans lack confidence, majorities of independents and Democrats are very or somewhat confident in the election.

Table 32: Confidence in the 2020 election, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Confidence in election
	Very confident	Somewhat confident	Not too confident	Not at all confident	Don't know
Total	49	17	15	16	2
Republican	19	21	25	34	1
Independent	56	18	13	9	4
Democrat	79	13	4	1	3
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: How confident are you that, here in Wisconsin, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election?

Aid to Ukraine and to Israel, and U.S. role in the world

Views of the role the United States should play in the world have been shifting in recent years. In Wisconsin, 57% think it is better for the country if the U.S. plays an active role in world affairs, while 30% say it would be better to stay out of world affairs. Table 33 shows how these views differ by party identification.

Table 33: Better for U.S. to play active role in world or to stay out of world affairs

Among registered voters

Party ID	Role in world
	Take an active part in world affairs	Stay out of world affairs	Don't know
Total	57	30	13
Republican	52	36	11
Independent	51	36	14
Democrat	64	21	15
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Do you think it will be better for the future of the country if we take an active part in world affairs, or if we stay out of world affairs?

Thirty-one percent say the U.S. is providing too much support to Israel in its war with Hamas in Gaza, while 17% say the U.S. is not giving enough support for Israel and 36% say the U.S. is giving about the right amount of support to Israel. Table 34 shows how views of aid to Israel vary by party. Democrats are more likely to say the U.S. is giving too much support to Israel than are Republicans or independents.

Table 34: Amount of U.S. support to Israel, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Support to Israel
	Too much support	Not enough support	About the right amount of support	Don't know
Total	31	17	36	16
Republican	26	26	36	12
Independent	27	18	39	15
Democrat	37	7	36	20
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Israel, not enough support to Israel, or about the right amount of support to Israel?

Thirty-three percent say the U.S. is giving too much support to Ukraine, 25% say the country is not giving enough support, and 30% say the amount of support to Ukraine is about right. Party differences on aid to Ukraine are the reverse of those for aid to Israel, with Republicans most likely to say too much support is being given to Ukraine, while Democrats are least likely to say this, as shown in Table 35.

Table 35: Amount of U.S. support to Ukraine, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Support to Ukraine
	Too much support	Not enough support	About the right amount of support	Don’t know
Total	33	25	30	11
Republican	54	13	22	10
Independent	35	30	26	8
Democrat	10	37	40	12
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine?

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This survey was conducted Jan. 24-31, 2024, interviewing 930 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.2 percentage points. The sample includes 408 Republicans and independents who lean Republican, who were asked about their preferences in the Republican presidential primary, with a margin of error of +/-6.4 percentage points.

The survey was conducted with a hybrid sample of 727 respondents selected from the Wisconsin voter registration list and 203 selected from the SSRS Opinion Panel, a sample drawn from postal addresses across the state and invited to take part in surveys online. The interview was conducted online with 814 respondents and with 116 by telephone with a live interviewer. Full details of the methodology are contained in the methodology statement at the link below.

The partisan makeup of the sample is 32% Republican, 30% Democratic, and 37% independent. Since January 2020, the long-term partisan balance has been 30% Republican, 28% Democratic, and 41% independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available on the Marquette Law School Poll website.

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About Kevin Conway

Kevin is the associate director for university communication in the Office of University Relations. Contact Kevin at (414) 288-4745 or kevin.m.conway@marquette.edu.